“What you are seeing is a genius at work”

November 16, 2009

“…which to me isn’t work, so it’s easy to misinterpret it at first.”

Couldn’t have said it any better than Eminem…..

The much talked about Pats-Colts game from last night all stemmed down to one decision late in the 4th quarter by hated but admired Bill Belichick.

With the Patriots up 6 points, with the ball, on their own 28 yard line, with just over 2 minutes to play, New England was faced with a 4th and 2.  Common sense dictated that Belichick would elect to punt.  Nevertheless, the Patriots defied convention, choosing to leave the game in the hands of one of the sports most prolific Quarterbacks.

Bill called a timeout to shoo his punt unit off the field. He sent his offense back to the field.

Second-guessing a genius decision that went wrong is a stupid thing to do.

A coach is supposed to put his team in the best position to win a game.  He doesn’t have to execute the plays, just make sure his team has the best chance to do so.   Bill Belichick is the best at this in the league and his decision last night proved it.

I don’t know any other coach that makes that move – but, despite it not being effective, and ultimately leading to a Patriots loss, it was a decision that gave his team the best odds of winning.

Leaving the game in the hands of Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker is much better than leaving it to a defense that last night in the 2nd half couldn’t stop a high school team.  No matter what, you knew Peyton Manning would lead his team to a touch down.  I would have given the Patriots a 90% chance of gaining two yards against an average defense.

If the Brady Bunch gets the first down, game over.  Just because the Patriots couldn’t execute, doesn’t mean it was the wrong call.  If you don’t believe me, just check out the Advanced NFL Stats for the call, here.

As much as I hate you Bill Belichick, you should be the model that every NFL coach studies.



  1. Give him credit for making that call, but I could not do it from the 29 yard line and face the team (especially the defense) after the game.

    Manning is prone to late picks and the Colts receiving corps is not the best–punt it and hope for a tipped ball.

  2. Peyton Manning is the best QB in football. Prone to late picks? C’mon…no.

    And the Colts receiving core is top notch….Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon. Those are some good players.

    Belichick played to win. He showed faith in Tom Brady and his offense instead of his defense. Nothing wrong wtih that.

  3. It’s amazing to me how many of you are inept at basic real world math.. The correct way to measure the call, is to measure the risk (it was a gamble)..

    I had a guy basically yelling at me telling me the Pats RAISE THE WINNING % from 70%, to 79% by going for it… But he fails to understand the implied odds that are right in front of his face..

    If the Pats convert on 4th down 76% of the time, THAT MEANS THEY FAIL 24 TIMES OUT OF 100.. Now, if they Pats convert they win 100% of the time, then that means that of the 24 times the Pats fail, the Colts score and win the game 21 times, or AN ASTOUNDING 88%!..

    Now, why in the world would you gamble to increase your winning % by 30 points (from 70%, to 100%), when you;re risking 58 points (from a 30% chance of losing, to an 88% chance of losing)?..

    That kinda gambling will get you broke, genius.. Just like it did for BB..

    • How about throwing mathematics and percentages out, and just going off your feel for the game? A coaches job is to put his team in the best position to win. The Patriots could not stop the Colts the entire second half, and you have one of the greatest QBs of all-time, one of the greatest WR’s of all-time, and maybe the greatest slot receiver of all-time, and all you had to do was get two yards. Belichick made the right call, in my opinion.

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